What the sector pays
Networks with a payback declared by the networks of more than 24 months have a median 5-year survival of 86.0%, compared with 69.2% in those of up to 18 months, a difference that is no longer significant once investment is controlled
Difference in 5-year survival between networks that advertise a payback of more than 24 months and up to 18 months, with segment, year and age held equal, in 7,481 head-office CNPJs, a relationship indistinguishable from zero once investment is controlled
See the full table (3 rows)
| Advertised payback period | Networks | Units in the cohort | 5-year survival, median across networks | With segment, year and age held equal | All units in the range | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up to 18 months | 53 | 3,041 | 69.2% | 71.9% | 71.2% | 66.2% to 75.5% |
| 19 to 24 months | 51 | 2,576 | 85.7% | 83.5% | 83.5% | 79.2% to 86.9% |
| More than 24 months | 44 | 1,864 | 86.0% | 81.9% | 82.8% | 76.5% to 88.3% |
Advertised period and survival within each investment rangeRank correlation between the advertised payback period and 5-year survival, across networks with both data points.
| Declared investment | Networks | Rank correlation | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Up to R$ 150,000 | 41 | 0.23 | -0.09 to 0.50 |
| R$ 150,000 to R$ 350,000 | 48 | 0.32 | 0.03 to 0.56 |
| Above R$ 350,000 | 32 | -0.01 | -0.36 to 0.34 |
Deregistration rate by advertised period rangeDeregistrations from 2021 to 2025 per 100 establishment-years, networks with 30 or more establishment-years.
| Advertised period | Networks | Pooled rate | Median across networks | 95% interval of the median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up to 18 months | 83 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 6.7 to 9.9 |
| 19 to 24 months | 59 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 to 5.3 |
| More than 24 months | 58 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 2.8 to 5.3 |
Deregistration rate by advertised revenue rangeDeregistrations from 2021 to 2025 per 100 establishment-years. Revenue ranges against 5-year survival are not published, because the sample does not support the relationship.
| Advertised revenue | Networks | Pooled rate | Median across networks | 95% interval of the median |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up to R$ 60,000 per month | 16 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 5.8 to 15.0 |
| R$ 60,000 to R$ 120,000 per month | 38 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 4.5 to 7.7 |
| Above R$ 120,000 per month | 29 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 to 4.2 |
Cross-reference testsOdds ratio of surviving 5 years per additional six months of payback or per doubling of revenue. For the deregistration rate, coefficient on the logarithm of the rate. Controls for segment, year of opening and network age. The adjusted p takes into account the ten tests of the cross-reference, and the columns with investment use only the networks that also declare it.
| Relationship | Networks | Effect | 95% interval | Rank correlation | adjusted p | Effect with investment controlled | 95% interval with investment | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advertised period and survival | 148 | 1.34 | 1.10 to 1.63 | 0.46 | 0.026 | 1.05 | 0.84 to 1.30 | supported without investment, indistinguishable from zero with it |
| Advertised period and deregistration rate | 200 | -0.044 | -0.062 to -0.027 | -0.44 | below 0.001 | -0.018 | -0.039 to 0.003 | supported without investment, indistinguishable from zero with it |
| Advertised revenue and survival | 60 | 1.37 | 1.08 to 1.74 | 0.36 | 0.034 | 1.06 | 0.62 to 1.82 | not supported |
| Advertised revenue and deregistration rate | 83 | -0.462 | -0.705 to -0.218 | -0.52 | 0.002 | -0.299 | -0.715 to 0.117 | supported without investment, indistinguishable from zero with it |
Payback period and revenue are commercial advertising, and no public database allows them to be verified unit by unit. The observatory does not measure whether the advertised period was met. The public registry makes it possible to examine, in aggregate, the outcome of the units of the networks that advertise each range, and the indicator cross-references the statement read on November 8, 2026 with the head offices opened from 2015 to 2020, with the reference month of October 2026.
In 148 measured networks and 7,481 units (CNPJs), survival over 5 years has a median across networks of 69.2% in those that advertise payback in up to 18 months, 85.7% in those of 19 to 24 months and 86.0% in those of more than 24 months. With segment, year of opening and network age held equal, the difference between the extremes is 10.0 percentage points (95% interval from 0.9 to 21.3), and each additional six months in the advertised period corresponds to an odds ratio of 1.34 (interval from 1.10 to 1.63). The deregistration rate has a median of 7.7 deregistrations per 100 establishment-years in the shortest period and 4.3 in the longest, although this relationship loses significance once investment is controlled (coefficient interval from -0.039 to 0.003).
The relationship is indistinguishable from zero once investment is controlled. Advertised period and declared investment have a rank correlation of 0.63, and, in the 121 networks with both measures, the odds ratio per six months goes from 1.26, without investment in the regression, to 1.05, with it (interval from 0.84 to 1.30), and the interval comes to include the null effect. Within each investment range, the rank correlations between period and survival are 0.23, 0.32 and -0.01, and the sign is not the same in every range, as shown in the corresponding table. The relationship is an association, with no indication of causation, and does not mean that a short advertised period reduces the duration of a unit.
Advertised revenue does not support a conclusion on 5-year survival, and for this reason the ranges are not published. There are 60 networks with enough units in the cohort, and the tests diverge, with an odds ratio of 1.21 per doubling of the value without controls (interval from 0.90 to 1.63), 1.37 with controls (interval from 1.08 to 1.74), 1.06 with investment in the same regression (interval from 0.62 to 1.82) and p = 0.113 in the permutation within the segment. The deregistration rate from 2021 to 2025 declines as advertised revenue rises, with a median of 8.5 deregistrations per 100 establishment-years in the lowest range and 3.3 in the highest, in 83 networks, a relationship that withstands correction for the number of tests and ceases to be significant once investment is controlled, in 63 networks.
How we calculate
Payback period and revenue come from a literal excerpt of the network's page, excluding testimonials from individual franchisees, with the midpoint when there is a range. Advertised ceilings, values per piece of equipment, scenarios and isolated cases are removed from revenue. The unit is the head office attributed to the network, opened from 2015 to 2020, with no MEI (individual microentrepreneur regime) status in effect at opening, and a head office counts as surviving if it has no deregistration up to the opening date plus five years. Measured networks with 10 or more units in the cohort are included, and the deregistration rate uses networks with 30 or more establishment-years from 2021 to 2025.
The effect comes from logistic regression by network and year of opening, with standard errors clustered by network and controls for segment, year of opening and network age, and the deregistration rate from a regression of the logarithm of the rate with robust errors. The ten main tests of the cross-reference between offer and registry undergo Holm correction. We publish a range only when the effect has an adjusted p below 0.05, a significant permutation within the segment and the same sign across specifications, with 10 or more networks per range. The test with investment in the same regression is presented separately and is not part of this rule, because investment is available only for some of the networks. The main figure per range is the median across networks, and the rate for all units in the range is published only when no network accounts for more than 50% of them.
What this figure does not show
- The indicator does not verify the advertised period. CNPJ survival provides no information on payback, revenue or profit, and a unit may remain active without reaching the advertised period.
- The advertising is that read on November 8, 2026, after the openings analyzed, and each network uses its own criterion to calculate the period. The page text generally does not state the model to which the period refers.
- Advertising the figure is the network's choice. Among measured networks with published conditions, survival is 78.3% among the 148 that advertise a period and 72.8% among the 65 that do not, and the controlled odds ratio is 1.19 (interval from 0.94 to 1.50), so the result does not extend to the other networks.
- Only networks that exist today are included. A deregistered CNPJ is not equivalent to a closed store in every case, and a unit that leaves the brand and remains active under another name drops out of the count. Namesakes may remain in the count by trade name.
- The aggregate does not allow the result to be attributed to any network. No network name appears on this page or in the data file, and the figure does not serve as a projection for a unit.
Frequently asked questions
Do franchises that advertise a quick payback close more often?
In the 148 measured networks that advertise a payback period, 5-year survival has a median of 69.2% in those that advertise up to 18 months and 86.0% in those that advertise more than 24 months. With segment, year of opening and network age held equal, the difference is 10.0 percentage points (95% interval from 0.9 to 21.3), at the threshold of statistical significance. The relationship is indistinguishable from zero once investment is controlled, with an odds ratio of 1.05 per additional six months of payback (interval from 0.84 to 1.30), and the result is an association, which neither indicates causation nor verifies the advertised period.
Does a franchise's advertised revenue indicate that it lasts longer?
The data do not support a relationship with 5-year survival. There are 60 networks with advertised revenue and enough units, and the effect does not withstand the tests or the inclusion of investment.
Can the payback advertised by a franchise be verified?
Not in any public database. The CNPJ (Brazilian company registry) records show opening, deregistration and registration status, and contain no revenue, profit or payback data for franchisees. The binding document is the disclosure document (Circular de Oferta de Franquia), delivered to the candidate.
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What the sector paysOther indicators in the same group
Maintained by Marktech, which serves franchise networks and franchises. The brands cited belong to their owners and are mentioned here only to identify the network the data refers to.