Where the units are and who operates them
60.5% of head-office CNPJs of franchise networks remain without deregistration 10 years after opening, compared with 58.3% in the same activities, a difference indistinguishable from zero
of the head-office CNPJs of the 501 measured networks remain without deregistration 10 years after opening, by the Kaplan-Meier estimator, in the reference month of October 2026
See the full table (5 rows)
| Time since opening | CNPJs at risk | Without deregistration in the networks | 95% CI | Others, standardized | Difference (p.p.) | 95% CI of the difference | Without deregistration, inapt status or suspension in the networks | Same criterion among others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 56,869 | 96.1% | 95.6% to 96.5% | 93.7% | +2.4 | +1.9 to +2.9 | 96.0% | 93.4% |
| 2 years | 47,659 | 90.6% | 89.6% to 91.6% | 87.0% | +3.6 | +2.5 to +4.7 | 90.2% | 85.8% |
| 3 years | 39,030 | 85.1% | 83.6% to 86.6% | 81.7% | +3.5 | +1.9 to +5.0 | 83.7% | 78.0% |
| 5 years | 25,482 | 76.1% | 74.2% to 78.0% | 73.2% | +3.0 | +1.0 to +4.9 | 71.7% | 64.1% |
| 10 years | 9,219 | 60.5% | 58.1% to 63.0% | 58.3% | +2.2 | -0.4 to +4.7 | 46.6% | 35.2% |
Risk of deregistration by year of lifeShare of CNPJs that reach the start of each year of life and are deregistered in that year, derived from the curve. In the comparison, the risk of the others is weighted by the network units at risk in each subclass, year of opening and age.
| Year of life | CNPJs at risk at the start | Risk in the networks | Risk among others |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 64,483 | 3.9% | 6.3% |
| 2nd | 56,869 | 5.7% | 7.1% |
| 3rd | 47,659 | 6.1% | 6.2% |
| 4th | 39,030 | 5.5% | 5.6% |
| 5th | 31,741 | 5.4% | 5.1% |
| 6th | 25,482 | 5.4% | 4.9% |
| 7th | 20,186 | 4.7% | 4.6% |
| 8th | 16,731 | 4.5% | 4.4% |
| 9th | 13,692 | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| 10th | 11,251 | 3.4% | 4.0% |
| 11th | 9,219 | 4.1% | 3.9% |
| 12th | 7,364 | 3.2% | 3.5% |
| 13th | 5,751 | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| 14th | 4,263 | 3.1% | 3.3% |
| 15th | 2,850 | 3.4% | 3.4% |
Check against registry snapshotsHead-office CNPJs active in the snapshot of May 2023, followed up to October 2026. The network is the one at the initial date, whatever the later name, and the others follow the same criterion. The last column repeats the calculation with attribution by the name of October 2026.
| Age of the CNPJ | CNPJ-years observed | Deregistrations per year in the networks | Deregistrations per year among others | Deregistrations per year in the networks, current name |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up to 1 year | 3,094 | 5.40% | 8.59% | 5.70% |
| 1 to 2 years | 8,971 | 7.54% | 8.37% | 7.81% |
| 2 to 3 years | 13,496 | 7.34% | 6.84% | 7.71% |
| 3 to 5 years | 28,076 | 6.25% | 5.68% | 6.54% |
| 5 to 10 years | 34,453 | 4.72% | 4.47% | 4.98% |
| 10 to 15 years | 17,032 | 3.50% | 3.74% | 3.65% |
Curve by segmentHead-office CNPJs opened since 2010. The median time to deregistration considers voluntary deregistrations from 2021 to 2025 of head offices and branches, as in the deregistration calendar. Food, retail and distribution and Tourism and hospitality are left out because one network accounts for more than half of the CNPJs or deregistrations, and are included in the total.
| Segment | Networks | Head-office CNPJs | Without deregistration at 2 years | At 5 years | At 10 years | Others at 2 years | At 5 years | At 10 years | 95% CI of the difference at 5 years (p.p.) | Median time to deregistration (years) | Among others (years) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food | 123 | 14,711 | 88.8% | 71.3% | 55.8% | 83.6% | 67.9% | 52.5% | -1.5 to +7.9 | 3.2 | 6.1 |
| Services and other businesses | 125 | 13,471 | 87.0% | 72.1% | 56.6% | 88.7% | 76.7% | 62.7% | -7.4 to -1.9 | 2.6 | 5.7 |
| Health, beauty and wellness | 86 | 11,959 | 92.4% | 79.5% | 65.3% | 88.8% | 76.5% | 63.1% | -0.5 to +6.4 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
| Fashion and accessories | 83 | 10,463 | 93.4% | 80.6% | 64.4% | 87.5% | 73.4% | 57.9% | +3.7 to +10.5 | 4.7 | 9.0 |
| Education | 31 | 4,142 | 93.3% | 80.3% | 63.5% | 90.2% | 76.9% | 61.9% | -0.4 to +6.6 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Gyms and sports | 21 | 2,189 | 95.5% | 87.9% | 74.2% | 90.1% | 77.5% | 64.0% | +3.7 to +14.9 | 2.8 | 4.3 |
Curve by business categoryCategories with at least 5 networks and 30 head-office deregistrations, in alphabetical order. A point is left blank when there are fewer than 30 CNPJs or 5 networks at risk at that age, or when one network accounts for more than half of them. 7 categories do not meet the criterion.
| Category | Networks | Head-office CNPJs | Without deregistration at 5 years | Others at 5 years | Without deregistration at 10 years | Others at 10 years | Median time to deregistration (years) | Among others (years) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gym | 11 | 1,070 | 91.8% | 77.9% | 78.1% | 62.7% | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| Açaí | 13 | 2,284 | 61.7% | 64.3% | 40.0% | 49.4% | 2.8 | 6.2 |
| Cakes | 5 | 967 | 76.1% | 71.5% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Coffee shop | 12 | 2,037 | 54.3% | 65.2% | 34.3% | 49.8% | 2.3 | 6.6 |
| Footwear | 27 | 2,641 | 83.7% | 72.7% | 67.0% | 56.6% | 5.2 | 9.4 |
| Barbecue and meats | 6 | 483 | 76.9% | 72.3% | n/a | n/a | 2.5 | 6.1 |
| Aesthetic clinic | 5 | 645 | 74.3% | 67.5% | n/a | n/a | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| Medical clinics and vaccines | 6 | 423 | 73.2% | 76.8% | n/a | n/a | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Italian food | 5 | 611 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 3.2 | 5.3 |
| Japanese food | 6 | 400 | 83.1% | 73.4% | 67.3% | 57.8% | 7.8 | 6.2 |
| Cosmetics | 11 | 1,829 | 76.5% | 70.3% | 60.5% | 53.4% | n/a | n/a |
| Credit and purchasing consortia | 8 | 699 | 57.2% | 73.1% | 42.6% | 58.2% | 2.7 | 4.2 |
| Vocational courses | 7 | 1,003 | 83.9% | 76.7% | 66.4% | 62.6% | 6.9 | 3.4 |
| Sweet shop | 7 | 797 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 2.3 | 6.8 |
| Pharmacy | 11 | 663 | 85.1% | 79.7% | 77.3% | 67.0% | 4.4 | 6.2 |
| Fried chicken | 7 | 360 | 66.8% | 68.3% | n/a | n/a | 3.2 | 4.7 |
| Language schools | 15 | 1,963 | 82.5% | 76.2% | 66.8% | 60.4% | 7.8 | 8.7 |
| Laundry | 17 | 2,467 | 79.5% | 79.3% | 61.8% | 64.9% | 1.6 | 7.1 |
| Cleaning and pest control | 9 | 900 | 68.7% | 77.8% | 51.2% | 65.8% | 5.0 | 5.4 |
| Intimate apparel | 7 | 442 | 85.1% | 68.8% | 67.7% | 52.6% | 5.0 | 9.7 |
| Dentistry | 19 | 4,671 | 87.5% | 82.4% | 76.8% | 71.8% | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| Optical store | 17 | 3,541 | 83.3% | 78.4% | 68.9% | 64.1% | 4.9 | 7.8 |
| Restaurant | 8 | 1,085 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 4.8 | 5.6 |
| Clothing | 18 | 1,889 | 70.5% | 69.3% | 52.9% | 52.9% | 4.1 | 9.7 |
| Savory snacks | 7 | 608 | 58.2% | 65.2% | 48.9% | 49.8% | 2.4 | 6.4 |
| Ice cream shop | 11 | 784 | 75.1% | 68.5% | n/a | n/a | 3.9 | 4.7 |
| Juices and mate | 7 | 964 | 71.3% | 65.8% | 50.0% | 50.2% | 3.1 | 6.6 |
| Vehicle inspection | 13 | 1,341 | 79.3% | 78.1% | 67.7% | 66.1% | 2.9 | 9.8 |
Time to deregistration, by year of deregistrationVoluntary deregistrations of head offices and branches, in years between the start of activity and deregistration. The last column is the median age of the networks' stock on January 1st of the year, because the median among deregistered CNPJs follows the age of those exposed.
| Year of deregistration | Voluntary deregistrations | Median time | First quartile | Third quartile | Median time among others | Median age of the stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 897 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 4.5 |
| 2016 | 1,072 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 4.7 |
| 2017 | 1,285 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 5.0 |
| 2018 | 1,528 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 5.2 |
| 2019 | 1,795 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 5.2 |
| 2020 | 1,804 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.9 |
| 2021 | 2,048 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 |
| 2022 | 2,385 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 4.4 |
| 2023 | 2,728 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 4.2 |
| 2024 | 3,127 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 4.2 |
| 2025 | 3,411 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 4.1 |
| 2026, through October | 2,786 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 4.4 |
Curve by opening periodShare without deregistration in the networks and, in parentheses, among other establishments, standardized. The most recent period only has the first points of the curve.
| Opening | Head-office CNPJs | 1 year | 2 years | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 to 2014 | 9,493 | 98.4% (96.9%) | 95.9% (92.5%) | 92.4% (88.3%) | 85.2% (80.4%) | 68.4% (63.6%) |
| 2015 to 2019 | 14,461 | 97.2% (94.5%) | 92.1% (87.7%) | 86.6% (81.8%) | 77.2% (72.8%) | 60.6% (58.4%) |
| 2020 to 2022 | 16,041 | 95.5% (92.8%) | 89.3% (85.5%) | 83.0% (79.8%) | 72.8% (71.1%) | n/a |
| Since 2023 | 24,488 | 94.8% (92.5%) | 87.9% (85.3%) | 81.6% (79.8%) | n/a | n/a |
Sensitivity of the curveEach row changes one criterion of the main calculation. The comparison is left blank when the criterion depends on data available only for the networks.
| Variant | CNPJs | At 3 years | At 5 years | At 10 years | Others at 5 years | Others at 10 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main | 64,483 | 85.1% | 76.1% | 60.5% | 73.2% | 58.3% |
| Head offices and branches | 80,721 | 84.2% | 74.3% | 57.3% | 71.8% | 56.1% |
| Only voluntary deregistration as the event | 64,483 | 85.2% | 76.5% | 61.2% | n/a | n/a |
| Deregistration with a successor at the address, treated as censored | 64,483 | 86.4% | 78.1% | 63.0% | n/a | n/a |
| Without CNPJs that did not have the network's name in May 2023 | 62,981 | 84.7% | 75.4% | 59.4% | 73.1% | 58.3% |
| Without the 5 networks with the most CNPJs | 56,272 | 84.6% | 75.6% | 60.0% | 73.4% | 58.7% |
| Including CNPJs predating the network's first unit | 64,509 | 85.1% | 76.1% | 60.5% | 73.2% | 58.3% |
| Inapt status and suspension also as events | 64,483 | 83.7% | 71.7% | 46.6% | 64.1% | 35.2% |
The survival of units follows openings from 2015 to 2020 up to the fifth year. This indicator extends the measure to the entire observable duration, with the Kaplan-Meier estimator, which also uses CNPJs (Brazilian company registry) still without an outcome by the date the base was generated. Among the 64,483 head-office CNPJs opened since 2010 in the 501 measured networks, 96.1% remain without deregistration at 1 year, 90.6% at 2, 85.1% at 3, 76.1% at 5 and 60.5% at 10. The curve crosses one half at 15.5 years, compared with 14.3 years among other establishments in the same subclasses, standardized by the networks' mix of activities and years of opening. The measure counts only deregistration as an exit. When inapt status and suspension also count, as in the indicator on the survival of units, which follows openings from 2015 to 2020, the share active at five years is 72.9% in the networks and 63.4% among the others.
The difference relative to the others is +2.4 points at 1 year, +3.6 at 2, +3.0 at 5 and +2.2 at 10, in this last case with an interval of -0.4 to +4.7 points, which includes zero. The risk of deregistration in the networks is 3.9% in the first year of life, compared with 6.3% among the others, and 5.7% in the second, compared with 7.1%. From the third year on, the two rates are close, and the networks' highest risk occurs in the 3rd year, whereas that of the others occurs in the 2nd. The direct comparison between the snapshots of May 2023 and October 2026 confirms the pattern, with annual deregistrations of 5.4% among CNPJs less than 1 year old, compared with 8.6% among the others, and 6.3% between 3 and 5 years, compared with 5.7%. By segment, the share at 5 years is above the comparison in fashion and accessories and in gyms and sports, and below it in services and other businesses, with a 95% interval excluding zero, and the other segments are indistinguishable from it.
Among deregistered CNPJs, the median time between opening and voluntary deregistration went from 5.2 years in 2018 to 3.6 years in 2025, a movement accompanied by the age of the stock, and ranges from 1.6 years in laundry to 7.8 years in language schools, among categories with a sufficient base. In 12.1% of head-office deregistrations with a comparable address, another CNPJ of the same network was opened at the same CEP (postal code) and street number up to 12 months before or after, a situation consistent with a change of owner without closure of the location. With these cases treated as censored, the share without deregistration rises to 78.1% at 5 years and to 63.0% at 10.
How we calculate
We started from the head-office establishments that the observatory's census attributes to the measured networks, with at least 30 active CNPJs, in the CNPJ base of the reference month of October 2026, by the trade name expression and the CNAE (national classification of economic activities) subclasses of the network profile. Openings since 2010 are included. Excluded are 4,945 CNPJs with the MEI (individual microentrepreneur regime) option at any date and 26 predating the network's first identified unit, generally namesakes. The event is deregistration, status 08, on the status date. Every CNPJ without deregistration, including those classified as inapt or suspended, is censored on October 11, 2026, the date the base was generated, so that each CNPJ contributes as far as it was observed. The curve is the product, month by month of age, of the share not deregistered among those at risk. The 95% interval resamples networks 1,000 times, because CNPJs of the same network are not independent observations.
The comparison brings together 5,493,204 head-office establishments with a trade name in the same subclasses, opened in the same period, outside the CNPJ roots of the universe and without the MEI option. At each age, the risk of the others in each subclass and year of opening is weighted by the network CNPJs at risk in that cell and at that age (Ederer II method), and cells with at least 30 CNPJs cover 99.9% of the networks' exposure. In this way, censoring and the mix of activities are the same on both sides. In the 2015 to 2020 cohort, the calculation yields 76.6% at 5 years, compared with 76.5% under the deregistration-only criterion of the survival of units, and the comparison group 72.8%, compared with 71.4%, because here MEI registrants are excluded by the option at any date and not only at opening.
The time to deregistration is the distance in months between the start of activity and the date of voluntary deregistration, reason codes 01 and 54, in head offices and branches, the criterion of the deregistration calendar, whose median from 2021 to 2025, of 3.6 years, is reproduced. The median of the others uses the subclass mix of the deregistrations in each subset. The check against the snapshots follows the head-office CNPJs active in May 2023, with the network fixed at that date, and divides the subsequent deregistrations by the CNPJ-years of exposure at each age. The annual rate of the calendar uses the same denominator, with CNPJs classified as inapt or suspended still exposed to deregistration. Succession at the address requires a specific CEP (postal code) and street number, available in 70.9% of deregistrations. In the same calculation, with the opening between 1 and 2 years from the deregistration, the share is 3.0%, a reference for address coincidences.
What this figure does not show
- Attribution is by the trade name as of October 2026. A deregistered CNPJ keeps its last name, and one that left the brand and remains active drops out of the set, which removes survivors and lowers the curve. In the snapshot of May 2023, which fixes the network at the initial date, 14.5% of active CNPJs are deregistered within 3 years, compared with 16.1% among those active at that date attributed by the current name. The difference is the balance between those that left the brand and those that joined later.
- A change of legal name in the same CNPJ does not alter the start date or the trade name and does not interrupt the curve. The legal name is not read in this indicator. A change of owner with a new CNPJ appears as a deregistration and an opening, an effect that succession at the address only partly measures, because it only covers the same street number, the same network and a window of 12 months.
- Age is counted from the CNPJ's start of activity, which may precede entry into the network. Among active head-office CNPJs opened before May 2023, 6.5% did not have the network's name in that snapshot. This earlier time is not subject to deregistration as a network unit, which raises the curve. Without these cases, the share is 75.4% at 5 years and 59.4% at 10. Entries before the snapshot are not observable.
- The universe is that of networks existing today, with at least 30 active CNPJs. Networks that have closed or shrunk are not included, which raises the curve, especially at long ages, which depend on the oldest openings. The 10-year point uses only openings up to 2016.
- Absence of deregistration does not equal a store in operation. There are dormant companies without deregistration, and the date is that of the registry act, which may come after the closure. With inapt status and suspension also counted as events, the share is 71.7% at 5 years and 46.6% at 10, compared with 64.1% and 35.2% among the others. The status is the current one, and an inapt status already reversed is not observed.
- The median among deregistered CNPJs is not a life expectancy, because it only includes those that were deregistered and depends on the age of the stock. In a young and expanding set, it tends to be low even with stable risk. The reading of duration is that of the curve.
- Only head offices enter the curve, and a unit opened as a branch is left out. The comparison brings together independent businesses, head offices of company-owned chains and units of networks not tracked, with a trade name filled in. The difference is descriptive and does not measure a causal effect of the franchise model.
Frequently asked questions
How long does a franchise last in Brazil?
According to the CNPJ (Brazilian company registry) records, in the 501 networks measured by the observatory, 76.1% of head-office CNPJs remain without deregistration 5 years after opening and 60.5% 10 years after, and the curve crosses one half at 15.5 years. Absence of deregistration does not equal a store in operation, and the set is that of networks existing today.
Do franchises close less often than other businesses?
The share without deregistration in the measured networks is 3.6 points higher than that of other establishments in the same activities at 2 years, and 2.2 points higher at 10 years, with an interval of -0.4 to +4.7 points, which includes zero. The advantage forms in the first two years of life of the CNPJ (Brazilian company registry), from the third year the deregistration rates are close, and at 10 years the difference is indistinguishable from zero. When inapt status and suspension also count as exits, as in the indicator on the survival of units, the five-year difference is 9.5 points. The result is descriptive.
In which year is a franchise most at risk of closing?
In the measured networks, the risk of deregistration is highest in the 3rd year of life of the CNPJ (Brazilian company registry), at 6.1%, and in the first year it is 3.9%, compared with 6.3% among other establishments in the same activities. After the third year, the networks' risk declines gradually, to 3.4% in the tenth year.
How long does a franchise take between opening and deregistering its CNPJ?
Among the CNPJs (Brazilian company registry) of the measured networks with voluntary deregistration in 2025, the median time between opening and deregistration was 3.6 years. This figure only considers those that were deregistered and depends on the age of the stock, so it does not equal the expected duration of a unit, which is measured by the survival curve.
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Where the units are and who operates themOther indicators in the same group
Maintained by Marktech, which serves franchise networks and franchises. The brands cited belong to their owners and are mentioned here only to identify the network the data refers to.