Where the units are and who operates them
CNPJs of franchise networks are deregistered at 3.6 years at the median, compared with 6.1 in the same activities, a difference that comes mainly from the age of the stock
is the median time between opening and voluntary deregistration of CNPJs of the measured networks, from 2021 to 2025
See the full table (7 rows)
| Segment | Voluntary deregistrations, 2021 to 2025 | Median lifespan, in years | First quartile | Third quartile | Less than 2 years old | Median among others, in years | Deregistrations per 100 expected | Exits of any type per 100 expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food | 3,558 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 6.8 | 30.9% | 6.1 | 88 | 55 |
| Fashion and accessories | 2,610 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 8.2 | 20.8% | 9.0 | 94 | 68 |
| Services and other businesses | 2,551 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 6.2 | 40.3% | 5.7 | 116 | 91 |
| Health, beauty and wellness | 2,334 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 7.4 | 28.2% | 3.9 | 81 | 66 |
| Education | 1,024 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 11.8 | 15.2% | 6.0 | 107 | 95 |
| Gyms and sports | 140 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 6.1 | 39.3% | 4.3 | 46 | 41 |
| All measured networks | 13,703 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 7.5 | 29.0% | 6.1 | 92 | 67 |
Age at deregistration and annual deregistration rateDistribution of voluntary deregistrations from 2021 to 2025 by age and annual rate over CNPJ-years of exposure. The third and last columns apply the rate of the other establishments, by CNAE subclass and age, to the networks' distribution. Age is the difference between the year of deregistration and the year of opening, which places in the 5-year band a CNPJ that is 4 years and a few months old. By the distance in months, 61.5% of deregistrations were less than 5 years old, compared with the 57.8% of the first two bands.
| Age at deregistration | Deregistrations in the networks | Deregistrations among others | Others, with the networks' age structure | Annual rate in the networks | Annual rate among others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up to 1 year | 21.3% | 18.8% | 27.8% | 5.6% | 8.0% |
| 2 to 4 years | 36.6% | 23.8% | 34.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% |
| 5 to 9 years | 24.0% | 18.6% | 21.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% |
| 10 years or more | 18.1% | 38.7% | 16.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% |
Monthly index of deregistrationsVoluntary deregistrations per business day, with the annual average equal to 100, from 2015 to 2025. The last column is the average correlation of each year's profile with that of the other years. The criterion of the seasonality indicator requires at least 0.5 in the total and 0.4 in the segment. No segment meets the criterion, and the index by segment is not to be read as a calendar. Food, retail and distribution, as well as Tourism and hospitality, are left out of the segment breakdowns because in each of them a single network accounts for more than half of the deregistrations, and are included in the total.
| Subset | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Correlation between years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All measured networks | 87 | 96 | 99 | 88 | 96 | 97 | 96 | 110 | 106 | 105 | 108 | 112 | 0.39 |
| Other establishments in the same activities, standardized | 96 | 107 | 99 | 94 | 94 | 101 | 102 | 105 | 99 | 98 | 100 | 104 | 0.34 |
| Food | 100 | 99 | 105 | 93 | 96 | 101 | 97 | 97 | 101 | 92 | 104 | 114 | -0.07 |
| Fashion and accessories | 81 | 102 | 94 | 79 | 107 | 85 | 91 | 125 | 102 | 110 | 117 | 108 | 0.24 |
| Services and other businesses | 84 | 89 | 84 | 94 | 93 | 102 | 98 | 116 | 97 | 116 | 107 | 119 | 0.20 |
| Health, beauty and wellness | 79 | 87 | 99 | 85 | 83 | 98 | 91 | 120 | 125 | 121 | 103 | 107 | 0.28 |
| Education | 94 | 105 | 113 | 88 | 104 | 89 | 101 | 88 | 95 | 96 | 110 | 118 | 0.02 |
Deregistrations per year over the stock at the start of the yearDeregistrations for any reason in the year, divided by the CNPJs active on January 1st, with the set of networks of October 2026. For this reason the earliest years tend to be underestimated. Food, retail and distribution, as well as Tourism and hospitality, are left out of the segment breakdowns because in each of them a single network accounts for more than half of the deregistrations, and are included in the total.
| Segment | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% |
| Fashion and accessories | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% |
| Services and other businesses | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% |
| Health, beauty and wellness | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% |
| Education | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% |
| Gyms and sports | 10.5% | fewer than 5 | 2.6% | 3.1% | 13.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| All measured networks | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% |
Recorded reason for deregistrationReason for the registration status in the establishments file of Receita Federal.
| Reason | 2015 to 2020 | Share | 2021 to 2025 | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Voluntary dissolution | 8,385 | 91.4% | 13,703 | 96.1% |
| Merger by absorption | 478 | 5.2% | 528 | 3.7% |
| Ex officio or for failure to file returns | 304 | 3.3% | 7 | 0.0% |
| Other | 8 | 0.1% | 15 | 0.1% |
The survival of units follows establishments from opening. This indicator starts from the other end, the deregistrations recorded in the CNPJ (Brazilian company registry), and asks how old the establishment was when deregistered and in which month and year this occurred, in the 503 networks measured by the observatory.
From 2021 to 2025, the 13,703 voluntary deregistrations occurred at a median lifespan of 3.6 years, compared with 6.1 years among other establishments in the same activities. 61.5% were less than 5 years old, compared with 45.0% in the comparison group. The difference does not indicate earlier closure. The networks' stock is younger, and when the rate of the others is applied to the networks' age structure, the expected median is 3.1 years, compared with 3.6 observed under the same measure. The networks record 92 deregistrations for every 100 expected, with a 95% interval from 85 to 99, which does not include 100, a ratio that ranges from 46 in gyms and sports to 116 in services and other businesses. For exits of any type, there are 67 for every 100 expected, because inapt status weighs more heavily among the other establishments.
The annual deregistration rate in the networks is 5.6% up to 1 year of age, compared with 8.0% in the comparison group, 7.0% compared with 7.1% from 2 to 4 years, 5.3% compared with 5.1% from 5 to 9 years, and 3.4% compared with 3.3% at 10 years or more. The difference in risk is concentrated in the first two years, as in the duration of units, and afterwards the rates are close. The services and other businesses segment has the shortest median lifespan, 2.6 years, and education the longest, 6.0 years. The monthly pattern is unstable. The monthly index ranges from 87, in January, to 112, in December, and the average correlation between years is 0.39, below the minimum of 0.5 adopted by the observatory to assert a monthly pattern. The second half of the year is above the first in 9 of 11 years, and no segment meets the criterion.
How we calculate
In the open CNPJ data of Receita Federal (the federal tax authority), reference month October 2026, we read the establishments with deregistered status that the observatory's census attributes to the 503 measured networks, by the trade name expression and the CNAE (national classification of economic activities) subclasses of the network profile, and the reason for the registration status. The calendar and the lifespan use voluntary deregistrations, reason codes 01 and 54, which are 94.3% of the total from 2015 to 2025, because ex officio deregistration comes in batches and has an administrative date. The lifespan is the distance in months between the start of activity and the deregistration date. The index of the month is the ratio between deregistrations per business day in the month and the annual average, and stability is measured by the correlation of each year with the average of the other years, with a permutation test.
The comparison brings together the other establishments with a trade name in the same subclasses, outside the CNPJ roots of the networks, weighted by the networks' mix of activities. Both groups exclude CNPJs with the MEI (individual microentrepreneur regime) option, 4,945 in the case of the networks. To isolate age, we calculated the deregistration rate of the others in each subclass and age in years, from 2021 to 2025, and applied it to the networks' CNPJ-years of exposure. The expected deregistrations result from this application. In this rate, a CNPJ classified as inapt or suspended remains in the exposure, the criterion of the duration of units, because the registry keeps only the latest status and the deregistration of a previously inapt CNPJ enters the numerator. The interval of the ratio resamples networks 1,000 times. Exits of any type add up deregistration, inapt status and suspension, as in the survival of units, with exposure up to the recorded exit. The median in this calculation uses age in years, which is why it differs slightly from the median in months.
What this figure does not show
- The date is that of the deregistration in the registry, which may occur months or years after the location closes. The lifespan is therefore a ceiling on operating time, and the calendar records the administrative act, not the decision to close.
- Units that are dormant without deregistration, classified as inapt or that changed their trade name do not appear as deregistrations, and a change of franchisee with a new CNPJ appears as the deregistration of a recent establishment without the location having closed.
- The set is that of networks in operation in October 2026. Deregistrations of defunct networks are not included, which tends to reduce the networks' rate, especially in the earliest years.
- The deregistration ratio considers only voluntary termination, and with deregistration for any reason it is 95. Inapt status weighs more than deregistration among other establishments in some activities, and for this reason the column of exits of any type is the one comparable to the survival of units.
- The other establishments include independent businesses and head offices of company-owned chains, and not all subclasses have enough cases at all ages. Exposure uses calendar years, with half a year for the year of opening and the year of termination.
- Batch deregistrations by the same company on the same day were not removed, and without them the median is 3.5 years. Among head offices only, it is 3.2 years.
Frequently asked questions
How long does a franchise last before closing?
In the 503 networks measured by the Franquias em Dados observatory, CNPJs (Brazilian company registry) voluntarily deregistered from 2021 to 2025 were 3.6 years old at the median, and 29.0% were less than 2 years old. The figure considers only those that closed, not the likelihood of closing, which is measured by the survival of units. A CNPJ may be terminated without the location closing, as in a change of franchisee.
Do franchises close earlier than other businesses?
The median time at closure is shorter in the networks, 3.6 years compared with 6.1, and results from the age of the stock, which is younger in the networks. The difference in risk is concentrated in the first two years, with annual deregistrations of 5.6% up to 1 year of age, compared with 8.0%, and afterwards the rates are close. With the same age and activity structure, the networks record 92 CNPJ (Brazilian company registry) deregistrations for every 100 expected, with a 95% interval from 85 to 99, which does not include 100. The set excludes defunct networks, which favors the networks.
In which month do the most franchises close?
There is no marked calendar. CNPJ (Brazilian company registry) deregistrations in the measured networks range from an index of 87 in January to 112 in December, with the annual average equal to 100, and the monthly pattern repeats little from one year to the next, with a correlation of 0.39. The date is that of the deregistration record, which may be later than the closure.
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Where the units are and who operates themOther indicators in the same group
Maintained by Marktech, which serves franchise networks and franchises. The brands cited belong to their owners and are mentioned here only to identify the network the data refers to.