What the sector pays
5-year survival has a median of 89.5% in networks with investment declared by the networks above R$ 400,000 and of 68.8% in those up to R$ 100,000
Difference in 5-year survival between networks with declared investment above R$ 400,000 and up to R$ 100,000, with segment, year and age held equal, in 9,167 head-office CNPJs, an association with no indication of causation
See the full table (4 rows)
| Declared investment | Networks | Units in the cohort | 5-year survival, median across networks | With segment, year and age held equal | All units in the range | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up to R$ 100,000 | 25 | 2,094 | 68.8% | 69.1% | 73.1% | 62.1% to 77.4% |
| R$ 100,000 to R$ 200,000 | 58 | 2,728 | 73.3% | 71.8% | 71.0% | 66.4% to 75.2% |
| R$ 200,000 to R$ 400,000 | 49 | 2,474 | 83.9% | 78.8% | 77.8% | 71.9% to 82.8% |
| Above R$ 400,000 | 34 | 1,871 | 89.5% | 85.0% | 84.1% | 76.4% to 90.2% |
Growth and openings per deregistration, by investment rangeGrowth is the annual rate of active CNPJs from 2023-05 to 2026-10, median across networks with 10 or more CNPJs at the start. Openings per deregistration and deregistration rate refer to 2021-2025, networks with 10 or more events.
| Declared investment | Networks, growth | Annual growth, median | 95% interval | Networks, openings and deregistrations | Openings per deregistration | Median across networks | Deregistrations per 100 establishment-years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up to R$ 100,000 | 33 | 5.9% | 1.0% to 10.5% | 39 | 2.95 | 2.70 | 7.1 |
| R$ 100,000 to R$ 200,000 | 69 | 2.3% | -0.9% to 8.4% | 76 | 2.42 | 2.20 | 6.8 |
| R$ 200,000 to R$ 400,000 | 64 | 1.3% | -0.8% to 5.1% | 68 | 2.91 | 2.59 | 5.9 |
| Above R$ 400,000 | 41 | 5.4% | 2.3% to 9.3% | 44 | 2.99 | 4.04 | 4.9 |
Effect of investment on survival, by specificationOdds ratio of surviving 5 years for each doubling of the declared investment. A value above 1 indicates higher survival with higher investment.
| Specification | Networks | Odds ratio | 95% interval | p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No controls | 166 | 1.16 | 1.01 to 1.32 | 0.034 |
| Segment | 166 | 1.25 | 1.09 to 1.44 | 0.002 |
| Segment and year of opening | 166 | 1.25 | 1.09 to 1.44 | 0.002 |
| Segment, year of opening and network age (main) | 166 | 1.22 | 1.06 to 1.41 | 0.005 |
| Main, plus the network's active CNPJs | 166 | 1.21 | 1.05 to 1.38 | 0.007 |
| Activity category instead of segment | 166 | 1.17 | 1.02 to 1.34 | 0.021 |
| Main, also counting inapt and suspended status as closure | 166 | 1.23 | 1.07 to 1.40 | 0.003 |
| Main, networks with 5 or more units in the cohort | 186 | 1.23 | 1.07 to 1.41 | 0.004 |
| Main, networks with 30 or more units in the cohort | 85 | 1.18 | 1.00 to 1.39 | 0.055 |
| Main, excluding the 5 networks with the most units | 166 | 1.24 | 1.06 to 1.45 | 0.008 |
| Main, networks where CNPJs and store locator have the same order of magnitude | 83 | 1.20 | 0.97 to 1.48 | 0.091 |
| Main, openings from 2017 to 2020 | 166 | 1.23 | 1.06 to 1.44 | 0.007 |
| Main, midpoint of the declared range instead of the lowest value | 166 | 1.21 | 1.06 to 1.39 | 0.006 |
| Main, excluding networks that offer home-based, microfranchise, mobile unit or online operation | 151 | 1.22 | 1.05 to 1.42 | 0.012 |
| Main, age based on declared founding | 57 | 1.38 | 0.91 to 2.07 | 0.126 |
| Main, plus the median registered capital of the network's companies | 151 | 1.29 | 1.14 to 1.46 | below 0.001 |
Investment and survival within each segmentRank correlation across networks, segments with 15 or more networks.
| Segment | Networks | Rank correlation | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Food | 51 | 0.49 | 0.23 to 0.68 |
| Fashion and accessories | 26 | 0.36 | -0.04 to 0.66 |
| Health, beauty and wellness | 37 | 0.43 | 0.11 to 0.67 |
| Services and other businesses | 26 | 0.33 | -0.08 to 0.64 |
Royalties and royalty exemption against survivalEffect controlled for segment, year of opening and network age. The last column shows the smallest correlation the sample would detect with 80% power.
| Declared variable | Networks | Units | Odds ratio | 95% interval | adjusted p | Minimum detectable correlation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royalty on revenue, per percentage point | 27 | 856 | 1.00 | 0.80 to 1.26 | 0.987 | 0.57 |
| Royalty exemption, against those that charge | 60 | 2,551 | 0.84 | 0.55 to 1.30 | 0.884 | 0.37 |
The initial investment is declared by the network, and the duration of units is recorded in the public registry, so the relationship between the two only emerges when the sources are cross-referenced. The indicator compares the lowest investment that each network currently declares on its own page with the outcome of the head offices attributed to it and opened from 2015 to 2020, in 166 of the 503 measured networks and 9,167 units (CNPJs), with the reference month of October 2026.
Survival over 5 years, measured by the absence of deregistration, has a median across networks of 68.8% in those that declare up to R$ 100,000, 73.3% from R$ 100,000 to R$ 200,000, 83.9% from R$ 200,000 to R$ 400,000 and 89.5% above R$ 400,000. With segment, year of opening and network age held equal, the difference between the extreme ranges is 15.9 percentage points (95% interval from 6.1 to 28.3), and each doubling of the investment corresponds to an odds ratio of survival of 1.22 (95% interval from 1.06 to 1.41). The rank correlation across networks is 0.44 (interval from 0.30 to 0.56), and, within segments, 0.45, with p below 0.001 in a permutation test. The relationship is an association and does not establish causation, because investment goes along with unit size, format and the franchisee's capital, and the data do not separate these factors.
Growth does not follow this relationship. The median annual growth rate of active CNPJs between 2023 and 2026 is 5.9% in the lowest range and 5.4% in the highest, the rank correlation is 0.08 (interval from -0.05 to 0.22) and the controlled coefficient, of 1.59 percentage points per doubling of the value (interval from -0.21 to 3.40), includes zero. The ratio of openings to deregistrations from 2021 to 2025 also rises with investment, in a statistically supported way.
Royalties and royalty exemption do not have a sufficient sample for a conclusion. There are 27 networks with a percentage royalty on revenue and enough units in the cohort, and 15 with a declared exemption, and the intervals include both relevant effects and the absence of an effect.
How we calculate
The unit of measurement is the head office attributed to the network by the observatory's census, opened from 2015 to 2020, with no MEI (individual microentrepreneur regime) status in effect at opening. A head office counts as surviving at 5 years if it has no deregistration up to the opening date plus five years. The same set, with all 503 measured networks, reproduces the 76.5% of the survival indicator, in 18,527 units. The cross-reference includes networks with declared investment, after the review of the offer census, and with 10 or more units in the cohort.
The effect is estimated by logistic regression with one row per network and year of opening, with standard errors clustered by network, and with segment, year of opening and network age at opening as controls, the latter counted from the earliest start of activity attributed to the network, cut at the 5th percentile to reduce namesakes. We also report the permutation test of investment within the segment, which gives each network the same weight. Survival with segment, year and age held equal is the average prediction of the same model with the composition of all cells, and the interval of the difference comes from 400 resamplings of networks. The main figure per range is the median across networks, which does not depend on the weight of a large network, and the rate for all units in the range is published only when no network accounts for more than 50% of them.
Growth is the annual rate of active CNPJs between 2023-05 and 2026-10, in networks with 10 or more CNPJs at the start, with control for the initial base, and openings per deregistration is the ratio between establishments opened and deregistered from 2021 to 2025, in networks with 10 or more events. The ten main tests of the cross-reference between offer and registry undergo Holm correction. We treat as robust an effect with adjusted p below 0.05, with a significant permutation and the same sign in all the specifications listed on this page.
What this figure does not show
- The values are declared by the networks themselves, read on November 8, 2026, are not verified by the observatory and do not have a uniform composition, since each network includes different items. They generally refer to the smallest model offered, and the binding document is the disclosure document (Circular de Oferta de Franquia), delivered to the candidate.
- The investment is the one declared on November 8, 2026, and the units were opened from 2015 to 2020. The value may have changed over the period, and the model opened may not be the one with the lowest investment, which is the one used here. The result with the midpoint of the declared range appears in the sensitivity table.
- Only networks that exist today and have a page read are included. Networks that have closed are not included, which tends to omit failures, and networks that publish investment may differ from those that do not. Of the 503 measured networks, 227 declare a usable value.
- A deregistered CNPJ is not equivalent to a closed store in every case, and an active CNPJ is not equivalent to an open store. A unit that leaves the brand and remains active under another trade name drops out of the count. Namesakes may remain in the count by trade name, and an MEI with a trade name is rare in the database.
- The correlation across networks is 0.50 in the 83 networks with up to 16 years of CNPJ history (interval from 0.31 to 0.66) and 0.32 in the 83 older ones (interval from 0.10 to 0.50).
- The indicator describes an association across networks and serves neither as a forecast for a unit nor as an investment recommendation. No network is identified, and the table does not assess networks.
Frequently asked questions
Do franchises with a higher investment last longer?
In the 166 measured networks with investment declared by the networks, the 5-year survival of units opened from 2015 to 2020 has a median of 68.8% in the range up to R$ 100,000 and 89.5% above R$ 400,000, and the difference persists with segment and network age controlled. It is an association, and it does not indicate that investing more in a franchise increases its duration.
Do networks with a higher investment grow more?
No robust relationship was found. The median annual growth rate of active CNPJs (Brazilian company registry) is 5.9% in networks with investment of up to R$ 100,000 and 5.4% in those above R$ 400,000, and the interval of the controlled effect includes zero.
Do lower royalties or royalty exemptions increase franchise survival?
The sample does not allow a conclusion. With 27 networks with a percentage royalty on revenue and 60 with a reported royalty, including exemptions, the confidence intervals cover effects in both directions.
Report an error on this page (in Portuguese)
What the sector paysOther indicators in the same group
Maintained by Marktech, which serves franchise networks and franchises. The brands cited belong to their owners and are mentioned here only to identify the network the data refers to.